{"id":3300,"date":"2016-01-13T23:32:15","date_gmt":"2016-01-14T04:32:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/?p=3300"},"modified":"2020-08-17T17:38:54","modified_gmt":"2020-08-17T17:38:54","slug":"5-robotics-predictions-for-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/2016\/01\/13\/5-robotics-predictions-for-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"5 Robotics Predictions for 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

from: Robotics Business Review<\/a>
\nBy Eugene Demaitre
\nJan 4, 2016<\/p>\n

Are you expecting robot butlers and flying cars\u2014or at least self-driving ones\u2014this year? Certain trends, such as increasing adoption of robots in logistics or smarter drones, are likely to continue in 2016.<\/p>\n

However, the forecast is less certain for self-driving cars, doomsday machines, or robots as smart or agile as humans. Fortunately, there are lots of ways for robots and AI to improve our lives in the immediate future, and here are some predictions for robotics in 2016:<\/p>\n

1. Productivity will continue to benefit from industrial automation.<\/strong>
\nRobots have been a fixture in factories for decades, but collaborative robots could move to smaller and midsize businesses. Robotic arms and manipulators are becoming safer, more precise, and easier to use, and some collaborative robots are going mobile.<\/p>\n

China, the world\u2019s biggest manufacturer, plans to intensify its level of automation, even in the face of an economic slowdown. While businesses such as Dell are trying to gain access to Chinese factories and markets, countries like Japan will also adopt robots in an effort to stay competitive.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen, however, how much \u201creshoring\u201d will occur, even if massive unemployment from industrial automation is debatable. In fact, certain skills will be in even higher demand.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, 3D printing has already begun to move from prototyping to production and is starting to change how we look at construction (if not the consumer market). Partly due to labor shortages, precision welding and dairy are among the industries turning to automation\u2014what\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

Could the automat return? The profit margins for fast food and retail are pretty tight, but anything that provides an edge in serving billions of meals could catch on.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the cobots mentioned above\u2014and the improved autonomy described below\u2014warehousing and logistics companies will invest even more in supply chain automation to serve consumer demand for instant gratification.<\/p>\n

2. Robots on land, in the air, and on the seas will be more autonomous.<\/strong>
\nWhether it\u2019s a self-driving truck at a mine, an unmanned aerial vehicle inspecting a bridge, or an autonomous underwater vehicle maintaining an offshore oil rig, drones and robotic vehicles are becoming easier to operate. This frees up humans to remotely do work that\u2019s otherwise too difficult, dangerous, or tedious to do in person.<\/p>\n

When will self-driving cars start ferrying passengers? In closed campuses, such as at universities and airports, they already are. There are significant technical, cultural, and legal hurdles to overcome before self-driving vehicles can hit the roads. They\u2019re not stopping major automakers and tech titans from spending a lot of money on the race to the first fully autonomous vehicle.<\/p>\n

In logistics, Amazon\u2019s research into drone deliveries could solve the \u201clast-mile problem\u201d and hasten deliveries, but again, there are safety and regulatory concerns to address.<\/p>\n

Corporate rivalries (and in the U.S., an election year) are also factors to watch.<\/p>\n

The Federal Aviation Administration currently permits exceptions to its ban on commercial drone use, but that scheme is likely to change with wider applications, just as the FAA finally required consumer drones to be registered.<\/p>\n

3. We\u2019ll find new applications for AI and robotics.<\/strong>
\nThanks to improving sensors, mobility, and the ability to gather big data, the Internet of Things (IoT) will become more important\u2014and useful\u2014in the coming year. From precision agriculture and warehousing to virtual assistants and medical diagnostics, smarter machines will infiltrate every facet of the global economy.<\/p>\n

Of course, there are challenges.<\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence research into machine learning, natural language processing, and machine vision will continue to lead to more advanced specialized robots, but that\u2019s still a long way from \u201cstrong AI.\u201d Elon Musk and company\u2019s investment in OpenAI is as much a future market play as it is an attempt to restrain robots.<\/p>\n

Ubiquitous computing and sensors raise privacy concerns, as was feared with Amazon\u2019s Echo. Medical robots could be hacked, and the offloading of processing and data into the cloud will require a new generation of security technology. Interoperability standards are going to be an issue for environments such as hospitals and hotels using multiple robots.<\/p>\n

Apple, Facebook, Google, and others are investing heavily in AI research. In the short term, AI will help analyze big data, manage business processes, and provide robots with autonomy.<\/p>\n

Just don\u2019t expect the device that handles your appointments via voice commands to be able to pick up your dry cleaning\u2014at least not yet.<\/p>\n

4. Robots will enter households, but not all will make it over the threshold.<\/strong>
\nMove over, Roomba. As our \u201cSweet Sixteen for 2016\u201d report noted, there\u2019s a wave of social robots getting ready to enter offices, shops, and homes. Some observers have criticized the first generation of such robots as being little more than tablets or smartphones on wheels.<\/p>\n

Will stationary assistants such as Jibo, the FURo-i, or Amazon\u2019s Alexa be the most useful, or will consumers prefer the more humanoid Buddy or Pepper? In a world where telecommuting and video calls already exist, how much demand is there for telepresence robots?<\/p>\n

As last year\u2019s DARPA Robotics Challenge demonstrated, humanoid robots are a long way from being able to easily get you a beer from the fridge or walk the dog. Expect to see market consolidation, price shifts, and increasing capabilities before there\u2019s a robot in every home.<\/p>\n

5. The robot apocalypse won\u2019t happen, but robots will help people worldwide.<\/strong>
\nAs noted above, true AI is a long ways off, according to people in the know. But a robotic arms race raises legitimate fears.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has led in airborne drone warfare, Russia has touted its new autonomous tanks, and ethicists are fretting about accountability and the ease of remote-controlled killing. As with any weapon, restraint is good, but understanding intent and managing global conflict are more important.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, surgical robotics, spreading exoskeletons, and cheaper and lighter prosthetics can help people right now. Bionic people are already among us, and improvements in machine vision, movement, and control help both industry and healthcare.<\/p>\n

Like other industrial automation, precision agriculture is a response to labor shortages and the need for productivity\u2014in this case, to feed 7.3 billion people. Autonomous machines and IoT will enable more farmers to monitor and manage crops from seed through cultivation, pest control, harvesting, and packaging.<\/p>\n

Nearly all nations, regions, and cities worldwide are courting robotics as the key to the future, but each one will have to decide where to specialize its expertise, even as hardware commoditizes. Is it AI research? Drone training? Flexible manufacturing? Social robotics?<\/p>\n

Not every educational contest, startup incubator, or merger and acquisition will be successful, but the robotics industry is only going to grow and be fascinating to follow in 2016!<\/p>\n

Let me know if you disagree, and even better, check out this year\u2019s webcasts, and let\u2019s compare notes at year\u2019s end!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

from: Robotics Business Review By Eugene Demaitre Jan 4, 2016 Are you expecting robot butlers and flying cars\u2014or at least self-driving ones\u2014this year? Certain trends, such as increasing adoption of robots in logistics or smarter drones, are likely to continue … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-robot-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3300"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4992,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300\/revisions\/4992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.dankohn.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}